Foresight Cluelessness

Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge. — Lao Tzu

The better one knew a particular historical event, the more perplexing it becomes to fathom why it didn’t go any other way.

People who have more knowledge of and were alive during a particular event understand deeply about the paths not ventured. Whereas, those who have minuscule knowledge about it focus mostly on the possibility of outcomes that eventuated. They could offer a story with hindsight of why the events were inevitable.

However, those who knew the period best were the most clueless about what the future would unfold. What appeared to be an obvious outcome in hindsight was a realm of conjecture at that time.

The same applies to us today, living in the current historical moment. Are the worst yet to come? Or are we heading toward the Utopian future? Nobody knows. But people of our next generations will look back and assert confidently why the direction we are approaching is the only course we could chart.

Yet, experts enjoy dishing out forecast of stocks price with certitude even though their accuracy is no better than a carpenter’s estimate.